I posted this in the “You gotta laugh” thread, but it really deserves a string of its own, being a separate topic. Here is the current categorical breakdown of EV’s, around the nation from electoralvote.com. It is based on the most recent polls in each state. (Example: released last Th., Obama over the Rom-bot in Virginny by eight percent, right now.)
Strong D (Obama), 187 EV’s.
Weak D (<10 % lead), 67 EV
Barely D, 49 EV
Tied, two states, CO and AZ (!), 20 EV
Barely R (Rom-bot), 45 EV’s, of which 29 are just in FL.
Weak R, 94 EV’s, and
Strong R, just 76 EV’s.
Now let us play what-if. Assume, for the sake of argument that Obama carries all those states and DC where he is currently “strong” and the next category, “weak” (e.g. less than ten percent ahead, now). That totals 254 EV’s and he then needs just 17 more to win a second term.
(To you skeptics: this really is a strong position – the Rom-bot’s equivalent number, beyond his “strong” plus “weak”, is 101 more EV’s!)
Now consider these tossup states and their EV’s. (I am not considering Missouri as likely, I may be wrong.):
Florida, now in play with the Ryan Plan pissing off the AARP, 29 EV’s.
North Carolina, 15.
Arizona, 11. (Same AARP problem, plus Brewer, plus Arpaio!)
Colorado, 9, and,
Here are possible paths to 17 or more to make the nut:
Florida, by itself, 29 votes.
Ohio, by itself, 18 votes.
(No Republican can be elected President without both of those states.)
Michigan plus Iowa.
NC plus Iowa.
Arizona plus Iowa.
Arizona plus Colorado, call it the Western Gambit.
Michigan plus NC.
Michigan plus Colorado.
Michigan plus Arizona.
North Carolina plus Arizona, or,
North Carolina plus Colorado.
So if the President holds his 254 votes, then there are at least 11 ways to make the minimum to win this election, and four more years in office. Now imagine you are the Rom-bot’s handlers, and you have to strategize how to prevent any of these.
(Now add in a wild card: if Missouri becomes a likely Obama vote, that adds four more possible winning combinations, with either: Michigan, or North Carolina, or Arizona, or Colorado. Wait, it gets better! Nebraska can split its EV’s, and if Obama wins two of them, than add in [CO + IA + NB's 2], or [MO + IA + NB's 2], e.g. two more minimum combinations. Is this fun, or what?)
Camp Romney should be ordering Pepto-Bismol by the caseload.
They will need it. They have so many different ways to lose this, 17 minimum combinations of EV’s.