image: Michael Netzer
Just want to call attention to this fantastic multi-part series in the LA Times on world population growth. I’m inclined to a road warrior type conclusion. The LAT has a paywall after a couple of articles, i get past it by restarting / resetting my browser when i get the message my number is up.
Peaking at 10 billion Amy?
Mind you extrapolation is often a crap shoot
Well, i said i’m inclined to a road warrior type denouement. I think things will conspire to knock many, many millions off before and if we get to 10 billion. Not enough water, not enough food, and revolution, for starters. That pesky climate change thingy too.
Do you mean traveling sales man or Mel Gibson Amy?
“Two men enter. One man leaves.”
Braveheart, of course. I’m sure i posted this awhile ago on a somewhat similar thread of Gunny’s.
Unless you and Kevin can get us up to planet oort cloud before then. Or snag some ice from Saturn or something. Grow corn on Mars.
my, we’re fucked.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/24/greenland-ice-sheet-thaw-nasa
Wonder if anyone has checked the methane levels around the Arctic tundra lately.
Amy, yeah, I was just looking at that Greenland thing. Bizarre, but entirely consistent with the modelling – ie, sudden and unprecedented changes. And even changing back equally suddenly.
The key words being increasing instability.
Good thing it’s illegal for the water levels to rise in N.Carolina, eh? There might be cause for concern if that were not the case.
I used to think that the level on denial exhibited by alcoholics and addicts was in a class by itself. Obviously that’s not so.
It’s amazing.
How long now have i been beating that tired drum – it’s the non-linear shit that’s going to do for us.
Been going on for a while there.
From the Guardian ….where facts are sacred article.
From the NASA link.
Sure there’s been climate change. There were ice ages. How long has it been since the Thames froze over solid, few hundred years? But as a graph i posted long ago somewhere on here showed, it’s the amplified oscillations of the temperature changes over the years that are the problem.
My Dad lived in Greenland the first 5 years or so of my life. Dunno how he did it.
My comments are addressed at the Gruan btw – not climate change.
Here is an article speculating that the Little Ace Age may have been caused by the massive dying off of perhaps 90% of the American Indian population in the centuries following Columbus’s discovery of America. The theory is that trees grew back over many previously cultivated areas pulling carbon out of the atmosphere and lowering temperatures. I don’t believe this theory is necessarily widely accepted, at least in part because the Little Ice Age began before Columbus’s voyage, but the author of this article is not the only person to espouse this theory.
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/335168
It has been commented that when Hernando de Soto marched around the SE US in the 1540s, the survivors of his expedition reported on seeing numerous Indian villages (many late Missippian culture which died out shortly after European contact) but supposedly did not comment upon seeing a single buffalo, which is a comment worthy creature. A hundred and fifty years later when LaSalle sailed down the Mississippi he did not see so many villages but did see a lot of buffalo. It has caused some to speculate that the great buffalo herds of the plains during the wagon train era may have a lot to with the simply tragic disappearance of so many Indians allowing the herds to become huge.
It does seem very possible that the Indian populations were very large, that most died off from disease without ever seeing a white man, and the pristine wilderness that the later mountain men and early pioneers saw when crossing the continent might have been a bit different had they crossed 300 years earlier.
Tommy -
That’s kind of fascinating. I really do know next to nothing about US history. Guess that’s what i like best about Tomasky’s columns, he knows his history and it gives his columns a good base.
Tommydog,
Prior to Europeans landing in the Americas, many historians speculate that there was actually a plague that took out 90-95% of the Native American population.
In addition to that, Native Americans had seen white people before when the vikings tried to colonize America and had their ass handed to them.
Had that plague never happened, there is no way Europeans would have successfully colonized.
Apparently there are respectable theories to the effect that that “pristine wilderness” was the overgrown remains of an abandoned, continent-wide cultivated game preserve — all gone because of that plague. Horrifyingly fascinating stuff.
The books 1491 referenced in NF’s wikipedia link, and its sequel 1493, are interesting reads. I thought 1491 superior to the second, but both contained a lot of unique observations. The author, Charles Mann, does make clear that he was trying to bring all sorts of new theories about pre Columbian America into one book, and acknowledged that they were not necessarily widely accepted.
Mann though, as I recall the book, does not suggest that the plague occurred before Columbus but was brought by Europeans, with the devastating impact that whole societies were wiped out without ever being aware that the Europeans had landed. Limited genetic diversity among Indians, speaking to a relatively small number of common ancestors who migrated from Siberia, made populations extremely susceptible to disease. By the time Pizarro arrived in Peru, the Inca had not only just been devastated by plague, but had also just been through a bloody civil war.
Still, the evidence is growing that many Indian cultures were far more complex that many people believed, (just reading the part about the various Mayan calendars will make your head spin) but also that so many died so fast.
Dog,
You recall right. And it seems to have been brought in several waves, just about everywhere the Europeans landed and, in most cases, before they’d had much contact with the people they accidentally (at least at first) killed. What’s now Latin America was pretty much wiped out when the Conquistadors landed, but the Pokanokets, who inhabited most of what became Plymouth Plantation, weren’t affected until just a couple of years before the English moved in for good (which almost certainly would have never happened if they’d still be healthy and numerous). The famous Tisquantum (aka “Squanto”) grew up right on the spot (as a member of the wholly wiped-out Patuxets) before he was kidnapped by English “traders”, spent a few years in Europe and made it home (quite a story there) in time to find the corpses of his family still lying about in unburied heaps (with the few who died first in graves that the starving Pilgrim Fathers promptly robbed for food).
Nowt to do with this, but Squirrel had his spinal injection yesterday; done by the Prof again. Brilliant: up on paws and on the way home (just slightly dopey) an hour and a half later.
NHS now a few hundred quid poorer, s’pose. (1 Professor, 1 junior doctor — in case Squirrel flakes out altogether — 1 canula [see above] 1 local anaesthetic and 1 concoction of whatever it is they pump into my spinal column. Couple of bits of sticking plaster — US price $20 each? — Oh, and one free cup of coffee. Not to my espresso standard, but not bad. And a chiding from the Prof — and a little bit of not so good news ’bout why the surgeon didn’t want to operate, but didn’t tell me, but never mind that now. I’m a bright bushy squirrel! — that I must ask for it earlier next time.)
Should keep Squirrel off wheels for most of the next two or three months and quite a bit of the three after if I’m careful. Hooray! I hate having to use them.
(But when I do need them again, I want one of these. Just heard about them. Really flash, aren’t they? British design — well, Scottish — too. Must save up. Doubt I’d get one of those on the NHS. Yeah! Boy Racer Squirrel is coming!*)
*Must look up law on ciggy advertising on wheelchairs. Reckon Marlboro’d pay good money to advertise on one of those as they have to give up on racing cars? Or Canon or Nikon? I wouldn’t mind a new DSLR . .
Honestly, I must be losing my journalistic knack of turning a lead into almost anything . . . Of course there’s a connection. In that Squirrel is not intending in the near future to contribute to diminishing the world population by one squirrel.
Sorry, but even socialist altruism has its limits.
Be well Squirrely. Up on paws? I hope you had someone accompanying (sp?) you home.
Good to hear about you being bushy-tailed, squirrel.
I thought you were in France though, but I see you’re not.
You just back for the spinal, then back to La Belle, or will you be in Londres for the Olympic zoo?
Came back last weekend. Staying for the BBC Proms, not the Olympics . . . (No interest in sport at all.)
And yes, did have an Italian friend from Naples with me: they don’t like to do it unless you have someone to go home with, in case anything goes wrong. He was very impressed by the hospital; been painted and polished up a bit even over the last couple of months. (He thought it was new, but it was built in the 70′s, to replace the Victorian one that got bombed in the war.)
(Fortunately, he didn’t hear what the Prof said; I’ll have to decide the next few days whether to tell best friend or not when she comes back from France. Rather not, but she can always tell if I’m hiding something. She should have been with me — good job she wasn’t! — but I got the dates mixed up.)
Squirrel – I remember talk from a few years back, mostly from Jack in Eugene I believe it was, on pimping your ride once you got one. How’d that all work out, by the way? Not the chair, but the other stuff from a few years back?
That chair looks – what’s the expression? Bad ass
And glad you’re mobile again squirrel. Lots of nut gathering in autumn then?
My Kentish cob nut trees look like having a good year.
Madame . . that was just a bit of fun; it wouldn’t have been terribly practical! He kind of vanished.
Olympics security update (sort of) for Gunny:
Went through town today, to celebrate being mobile. (Went to the seaside!) Oddly, two armed policemen (with Heckler and Koch’s I’ve been told before by someone who knows about these things) rather oddly — and a bit startlingly! — on the Jubilee Line concourse at London Bridge. (Not looking menacing, they were trying to direct a group of tourists.) No more than usual as far as I could see at London Bridge Station but it was very busy. Three or four more than usual at St Pancras International as I walked through on the way back, but unarmed.
Life appears to be carrying on just as normal.
But apparently Romney’s been showing how he shares our Anglo-Saxon values. At some do he apparently questioned whether we were actually ‘ready’ for the Olympics. Bit impolite, to say the least. Seems Boris — who can be quite a comedian — answered with a pastiche of Obama’s “Yes We Can!” thing . . .”Yes, we are!” Christ, that fucking guy is so out of it. If he meets the Queen he’s probably going to ask how much interest she gets on her savings in Switzerland, and does she prefer the Caymans or Lichtenstein for the monarchical shell companies?
The Romney story on NBC; one presumes he wanted to suggest how much better at organising the (Winter) Olympics than any body else.
Cameron: “We are holding an Olympic Games in one of the busiest, most active, bustling cities anywhere in the world. Of course it’s easier if you hold an Olympic Games in the middle of nowhere.”
Wasn’t the only Romney screw up today either. He seems to have managed two more. Bloody hell. We’ll be lucky if he doesn’t start some new Middle East war when he gets to Israel.
Squirrel,
I’ve been reading about Mitten’s gaffes.
I’m about ready to make a half-assed prediction at this point. If he keeps up this pace of ineptitude in what are really basic public relations skills — I doubt any of the regulars here on this blog would have been anything like so clumsy in such circumstances — there’s a chance the guy just might totally melt down. The tension he’s holding internally is palpable, in his posture, his voice, his facial expressions, in everything. It’s a long way to November, he could just blow a gasket.
I find myself wondering what’s going on. One must assume that somewhere among his staff are people who know the ropes for a trip like this (surely that must be the case) so is it that the guy is so arrogant that he doesn’t listen to advice, or is he so overbearing with his staff that they are reluctant to bring these things up ahead of time?
Or is the guy just stupid. Who among us would not have foreseen getting a question or two about the Olympics, given the venue and timing? And have formulated a benign response in advance?
It’s really something.
Yeah, he may well blow a gasket and meltdown soon. It’s weird, i don’t ever remember him being that awkward and clueless when he was gov of Mass. My theory is still that he’s forced into a mold that doesn’t fit him as a national level R. Bloomberg is just as rich and just as clueless about the rank and file slobs – comes out with some shit that would get him nailed nationally, so i’m not just blaming the money. Mittens should have stuck to the local level.
I’ve been reluctant to talk about the religion thing as he keeps it relatively private. But as Ann said they give 10% to the Mormon church, i may be ready to have that chat.
I couldn’t make head or tail of his odd comment about the PM having the Olympics within view from the ‘backside’ of Downing Street. Until it dawned on me that Horse Guards Parade is at the back, and that’s where they’ll have been setting up for the beach volley ball. Maybe Romney actually though that was the Olympic venue?
His comment just doesn’t make any sense otherwise. God knows, if he goes to watch his wife’s horse — that’s Greenwich, I think — he’ll probably be complaining the water jump’s a bit wide . . .
This should have been the easy bit. And he’s been opening his mouth here for less than a single day. The potential for real disaster — not just some piss-taking from us Brits, we’re not going to start another War of 1812 over it — of his — or his advisers’ — or both — utter ignorance, insouciance, thoughtlessness, casualness and carelessness is just terrifying.
I heard a so-called ‘Republican strategist talking on Radio 5 here about the importance of Romney visiting Poland . . .an “Eastern Bloc country” he said. You really have to wonder if some of the people around Romney aren’t still in a kind of Reagan time warp. Maybe Romney will go to Warsaw and demand the withdrawal of Soviet troops. Or yell “Tear down that Ghetto” or something.
Oh, and he’s refused to go and visit Preston. Where his great grandfather (or great-great?) came from apparently. So he’ll have pissed off Lancastrians an’ all. Of course, if it had been Preston, Ireland . . .
Mind you, better any association of that man’s to anywhere in the north is better well buried, I reckon. What a bloody embarrassment. If he went he’d probably start the Wars of the Roses again with some gormless comment.
Maybe he had better people doing his thinking for him, and maybe they made sure he stuck to what they wrote for him. And never left him on his own.
Could be as simple as that. He wasn’t allowed as many opportunities to be out on his own.
I know one thing: he’ll have a few young Brit civil servants from the FO trying to shepherd him and his entourage around; and once he’s on that plane, it’ll be drinks all round in the local and a very heavy piss-taking session. (I’ve met and worked with some: and they are very, very bright, and can be hilarious. He and his entourage are probably subtly having the piss taken out of them by them at this very moment, and it’ll probably be a week before they realise . . .If they do, Brits will be enemy number one by November; some Americans — and some French — never forgive us for that sort of thing, it rankles for years, and Romney and his lot definitely are among the afflicted!)
Someone, somewhere, quoted this perfect summary in the Torygraph:
“On the first day of what was supposed to be a foreign charm offensive, Romney succeeded in being both charmless and offensive.”
That, in Britspeak journalese, is utterly damning. It’s a much as to say “That man will never have any credibility or respect and deserves neither. Ever Worthless.”
Back to environmental stuff. . .Just seen a ‘report’ on ABC news about the drought conditions in the US. Nearly 2/3 is in a bad way? Soil is dried up. Crops failing. It was shocking; areas afflicted with severe drought have increased by (I think) something like 20-something per cent in one week. (Can’t be exact, sorry, this was put up and said so fast it barely had time to sink in.)
I shall never understand the US TV media. The ‘report’ showed a map of all this, which looked pretty scary; then the reporter spends three minutes telling us how a guy with crop-dusting planes might go bust because of it.
Why should we give a fuck about a guy who sprays pesticides over the landscape with planes*, when (presumably) thousands or millions of tons of crops are not growing or are dying. And it may take years to recover. And thousands of farmers don’t now, and may well not for months, have enough water for either to survive?
* Well, I suppose that’s the point, isn’t it? It’s displacement activity; we don’t want people to worry about the real problem too much, so we offer them a little problem they can say “Oh, so what, that doesn’t really matter” to, and forget the important one? Oh yes, it might just have something to do with climate change and global warming, mightn’t it? But we mustn’t suggest that might actually exist, must we?
Christ, by comparison look at the agonising that’s been going on in Australia over this kind of thing the last few years.
Squirrel,
CNN ran an article a few days ago about (ostensibly) the drought.
First they mentioned that, hey everybody, the corn in the Midwest is mostly dead this year (and man is it mostly dead).
Then they quoted a couple of farmers saying, yep, when it’s dried up and blowing away like it is, it’s probably not going to grow a whole lot more.
Then they got to the meat of the article and gave us the heartwarming story of a woman whose neighborhood pool had shut down, so she had to get in her dusty car (they wouldn’t even let her wash it!) and drive her kids a couple of miles to another pool. But she’s bearing up well. She has an upbeat attitude on life and doesn’t let things like her down.
That didn’t quite fill the column, so they mentioned in ending that June was the 368th consecutive month with higher than average temperatures.
I thought I misread that. Three full years? So that’s just ‘weather’ and nobody’s been actually worrying about it?
Squirrel,
Sorry. Fat fingers. It’s only 328 straight months. You can stop worrying now (except that’s, uh, 27 years, not three…)
But that’s not really important. What’s important is that lately it’s been getting worse.
Yeah, i was very worried last fall because congress had cut the supplemental fuel budget, and was afraid that people up here in the northeast were going to suffer. Last year’s winter was pretty bad, we had quite a few snowstorms. Need not have worried much, it was a very mild winter this year. I got my winter coats out of storage in Oct, and never even wore one. This summer is brutal though. We get a few 2-day breaks of decent weather, but it’s pretty bad. The plants bloomed around a month earlier than usual in the spring.