OK then. Political polling.
Sunday is the day we’ll be taking a weekly peek at that, once weekly being more than enough for now.
But before we get to that, let’s recap just some of the mischief The Donald and his troupe of comedians has been up to lately in the last month or so, in no particular order;
- He suggests that the “second amendment people” will be the only remaining remedy for a Supreme Court stacked with liberal pond scum by Hillary Clinton if she’s elected president.
- A Trump surrogate, in response to a query about whether making a speech to white people in a white neighborhood is really the best strategy for winning black votes, wonders on live TeeVee if Trump would get more traction with black voters if “there was a burning car in the background” at his speeches and interviews.
- When asked in an interview about what he’d do with the father of Orlando nightclub shooter Omar Mateen, a US citizen born in Afghanistan who has committed no crimes, he said; “I’d throw him out. If you look at him, I’d throw him out.” He then went on to say that Mateen wouldn’t be the only person he’d “look at” with a view to deportation.
- Glibly suggests that if his daughter were the victim of sexual harassment at work, he would hope she’d have the strength of character to go out and find another job.
- States clearly, then doubles down on the assertion, that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are “literally” the founders of ISIS. He then asks why “people are complaining about that.”
- He continues his flame war with the parents of a soldier killed in action—known as Gold Star parents in the US—suggesting among other things that their religion may have prohibited the mother from saying anything publicly of her own accord.
- One of Trump’s named “foreign policy advisors”, a lawyer named Joseph Schmitz, is reported as having said, among other things, that “the ovens were too small to kill 6 million Jews”.
- He say he “regrets” something or other, but nothing specific, and certainly not for demonstrating his natural affinity for diplomacy by suggesting that while the US would be obligated to defend Japan if it were attacked, Japan would not be obligated to “do anything” if the situation were reversed and could happily “sit home and watch Sony TV”.”
- Representative Al Baldasaro, a state lawmaker in New Hampshire who co-chairs the Trump campaign’s national veterans’ coalition, stated that “without a doubt” he stood by his assertion that Hillary Clinton should be shot to death.
- He shitcans his odious senior campaign staff and replaces them with possibly even more odious flamethrowers from Breitbart.com, arguably one of the internet’s more disagreeably racist and hateful rest stops.
- He visits the scene of the Louisiana flood disaster—against the advice of the emergency personnel and governor—where he signs some tee-shirts then hands out boxes of PlayDoh™. No, really, he did.
In addition to all that, Clinton’s national campaign fielded 10 times as many personnel and spent more than seven times as much on advertising ($38m vs $4.8m in July) than did Trump’s, and raised twice as much money.
Also more than 70 GOP politicians sent a letter to the RNC urging them to cut funding to their own party’s actual nominee and instead sluice the cash to downballot races in an attempt to limit the scope of the looming electoral damage.
Then there’s the “Trump is Putin’s bitch” narrative, with which the cartoonists are having a field day and which is supported by the likes of (usually) GOP stalwarts like George Will, who has suggested that the reason Trump won’t release his tax returns is to hide the depth of his involvement with “Russian oligarchs”.
Oh yes, and which spawned this ad;
Just what are the current polling trends over the last couple of weeks against this backdrop of what would normally be considered campaign suicide?
Clinton’s lead has shrunk more than 2 1/2 points according to RealClear’s chart above. Similar tightening appears in all of Nate Silver’s models, but not so much on Huffpollster which has both candidates losing ground about equally with “undecided” going up a bit.
This has been two weeks, let’s observe, without any especially negative coverage of Clinton’s campaign beyond the usual ambient background noise about email servers and Benghazi and the FBI and the Clinton Foundation and
her drowning puppies for fun arranging the murder of godknows how many people for obstructing the Clinton dynastic plans.
Yes, I know, the chart is built around national averages and what really counts is Electoral Votes and anyway it’s still too soon to get excited, and of course the polls are still saying that Trump is way behind—most especially from the Electoral Vote perspective—with current estimates giving Clinton something approaching 350 EV’s and showing Trump possibly in trouble in unlikely places like Arizona and maybe even Georgia.
But goddam it, here we have this obvious con artist and petulant little popinjay almost daily violating just about every last shred of traditional political wisdom in the book, and not by just touching, but gleefully grabbing, every political “third rail” you can think of and then some, then just about completely dominating every news cycle while doing so.
And still he’s polling in the low to mid 40% range? The completely neglected question is why the hell he’s not trailing by 40%.
Just how fucking crazy is that, and what does it say about how flawed and deeply vulnerable a candidate Hillary Clinton really is?