Trump 2.0

Or maybe 3.0, given that she isn’t eligible to run for president for another 11 years or so: Tomi Lahren.  Slim, blonde, telegenic, can speak coherently, down on Muslims, liberals, feminists, Black Lives Matter, taxes, collective life, etc. Probably up on guns, I can’t stomach her long enough to find out. Could her face be the face of the first female POTUS?  Hers or one like hers.

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Hasta La Victoria . . .

fidel

So, he’s dead. Of old age. After all  those assassination attempts and (non-exploding) cigars too. And his beard never did fall out. I shall smoke my last remaining real Cuban cigar tonight in his memory and wear my genuine-from-Cuba Che Guevara T-shirt.

“I’ll be 90 soon. Soon I’ll be like all the others. The time will come for all of us, but the ideas of the Cuban Communists will remain as proof that on this planet, if one works with fervour and dignity, they can produce the material and cultural goods that human beings need and that need to be fought for without ever giving up.” [Speech at the Party Congress April this year.]

I remember a Channel 4 documentary about those assassination attempts; there were two of Fidel’s old secret service guys totting them up. After they’d piled up all the papers, one said: “I make it 613,  how about you?” “I thought it was 642.” “Oh. Do you think we could have counted some twice?”

(Numbers are approximate.)

poster_che_guevara_hasta_la_victoria_big

Trump tweets: “Great news! Trumpery Casino and Trumpery Presidential Suite to open bigly in Havana soon! Yuuge Ivanka Trump Cuban cigars only $148 each! Buy now!”

(I do hope this post won’t get all 9000 feet into trouble later. Red Squirrels already notified to be on lookout for black helicopters with ‘TRUMP CIA’ on them in big letters.)

the chair

I want to move on—past whose fault this train wreck is—toward whatever strategies might make sense for people of goodwill to pursue.

Obviously, or at least it seems obvious to me, the only potential source of effective resistance to the designs of  the little carnival barker who’s promised to make the trains run on time (and who will surely follow the historic precedent of fulfilling that promise by making it illegal to talk about the trains running late), is the Democratic party.

Candidate #1; Keith Ellison

But clearly a Dem party under the continued leadership of the appalling muppets currently holding court therein won’t be, is incapable of being, a source of that resistance, so changes in the party leadership must happen.

The Democratic National Committee is the governing body of the party, so the Chair of that committee is a big deal. For most of the time since 2011 that position was occupied by the odious Debbie Wassermann Schulz, who juggled her responsibilities with being a congresscritter from Florida where among other things she did whatever she could to smooth the path for the predatory “paycheck” lending industry.

Schultz was not elected to the DNC chair, she was appointed by Barack Obama.

Candidate #2; Howard Dean

Candidate #2; Howard Dean

The current interim chair is Donna Brazile, who has her own troubles with corruption accusations but who has made it clear she’s just the interim chair and is not running as a candidate for election to the post, so there’s no real point to dwelling on any of that.

Current declared candidates are former Vermont governor and DNC chair Howard Dean, Minnesota Congressman Keith Ellison and South Carolina Democratic Party chair Jaime Harrison.

Ellison’s candidacy has been endorsed by party luminaries like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Chuck Schumer and Harry Reid, and up until now he has been reported as “the front runner”

Dean is fairly well known as the architect of the “50 state strategy” when he held the DNC chair from 2005 – 2009, and is already mustering  no small amount of online support on the back of that track record, since the 50 state strategy was seen as successful in terms of winning elections.

Dean was an early supporter (an instantaneous supporter, the very minute Sanders declared his candidacy, according to 9thousandfeet’s Vermont correspondents) of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.

The third declared candidate is Jaime Harrison, who in 2013 became the first African American to chair the South Carolina Democratic Party. He has not held any elected office so far, and it’s probably realistic to think of his candidacy here as having at best an outside chance.

The date of the actual election is not as yet nailed down but will be “on or before” March 31, 2017.

It’s not unlikely that additional candidates may emerge, and there is another variable to consider as well;

Candidate #3; Jaime Harrison

Candidate #3; Jaime Harrison

Article V, Section Four of the DNC charter reads; “The National Chairperson shall serve full-time and shall receive such compensation as may be determined by agreement between the Chairperson and the Democratic National Committee.”

It’s the “full-time” provision which may be invoked by Dean supporters (and possibly others, going forward). The argument that the responsibilities of the DNC chair, especially now, are so important and so labor-intensive that the position should  be a full-time job is compelling.

Ellison is a congressman and so already has duties which, if executed properly, should  themselves add up to a full-time job, so his holding elected office could become a vulnerability.

There is of course plenty of precedent for the occupant of the DNC chair holding elected office simultaneously, so the rule has been overlooked before (cf Schultz, most recently), but I expect Dean to run a campaign for the post which presses this not insignificant point.

This election,  entirely internal to the Democratic Party, with the votes cast only by DNC members (most of them so-called “superdelegates”), is a very “inside baseball” kind of thing but it is going to matter enormously. Somebody competent and persuasive could really help organize resistance to Brother Benito’s agenda.

Somebody ineffective, or worse, somebody effective but dedicated to preserving the existing party establishment’s hold on power, would be calamitous.

So I’d like this piece to be a starting point for discussion of this issue.  Comments which continue the discussion about who fucked up the worst in bringing us all to this ugly situation can continue in previous threads, where I may myself be tempted to continue participation.

But we have to move forward eventually.  I’d like to start here.

the face of change

This might become a series of posts with photographic representations of the sinister drones who are now being installed at the levers of power.

So,  since I’ve been chatting recently about shitting on the couch, let’s start with Steve Bannon.

Stephen Bannon, newly appointed senior advisor to President-elect Donald Trump

Stephen Bannon, newly appointed senior advisor to President-elect Donald Trump

It takes a long time and a lot of practice to acquire a facial expression like that.

If he were a woman, of course, Trump would be dismissing him as “ugly” and a “fat pig”, but he’s not and so different rules apply, although we’re expected to pretend that’s not true.

where are we?

I’m not at all sure that we won’t see a veritable deluge of drainage, from congress outward. I think of the whole country as the waiting flood plain.

To switch metaphors, I see congress as a capacitor or a storage battery that has been building up a huge charge for decades and will now have a chance to discharge it in a single governmental instant. This is not a wholly unified charge but rather an amalgam of distinct agendas: these, in no particular order, may be called the Social Conservative Agenda, the Drowning It In A Bathtub Agenda, the Unleashing The Creative Power Of Free Enterprise Agenda, and The Symbolic Clearing Away Of Impurities Agenda.

You wanted change? You got it.

You wanted change? Ask, and thou shalt receive.

The Social Conservative Agenda can never be fully realized, but two of its dominant concerns can be addressed at once. (1) Ending all access to legal abortion can be achieved as a practical matter long before the supreme court officially announces its legal end. (2) The return to traditional social values can be got underway by (a) reversing all laws and executive orders that specifically benefit gay and trans people, (b) establishing a national public school curriculum that overturns the disgraceful secularist attack on religion and historical truth, and (c) issuing a mix of new laws and executive orders guaranteeing the individual’s right to freedom from compulsion to participate in acts that conflict with the dictates of his conscience and religious beliefs.

The Drowning It In A Bathtub Agenda can be started on its way by (1) reducing taxes (need I tell you on whom?) to the level required to support only essential services (need I tell you what those are?) and (2) abolishing useless and counterproductive organs of government (the EPA, OSHA, the DOE, for starters) and cutting all – all, with only a couple of obvious exceptions – other agency staffs by a healthy 50% (95% for the new Department of Fees and Excises, which will replace the IRS). (3) Reform of Social Security may take some time but steps toward the auction of the social security trust fund and the conversion of existing benefits to shares in the eventual Social Security Investment Fund may be taken at once.

The Unleashing The Creative Power Of Free Enterprise Agenda can be begun by (1) immediate repeal of the ACA, (2) removing all impediments to True Energy Independence and abolishing all regressive taxes that hobble the Producers of Energy in their selfless goal of delivering oil and coal wherever Demand dictates it should go, (3) an immediate end to all governmental repression of Essential Industries (as designated by the secretary of Commerce), (4) a national Right To Work Act forbidding (in Article XXVII, aka The Anti-business Sabotage Suppression Clause) all interference with the decisions of company management not initiated by shareholders.

The Symbolic Clearing Away Of Impurities Agenda can be almost wholly achieved through executive orders, requiring (1) prominent display of “In God We Trust” on all public buildings, (2) ending all federal interference with the several States’ sovereign right to

The guy is going to have plenty of help, never fear. Here's Pence, withvarious mullahs, signing Indiana's restrictive LGBT law.

The guy is going to have plenty of help, never fear. Here’s Pence, with various mullahs, signing Indiana’s restrictive LGBT law.

apportion voting privileges among qualified adults, (3) countermanding all existing orders aimed at privileging officially favored segments of society the expense of others in matters of employment, education, and housing, (4) immediate enforcement of all laws concerning immigration and naturalization (including revocation of the so-called birthright citizenship of all so-called citizens whose birth in the US was enabled by prior violations of immigration law), and (5) compassionate issuance to genuinely disabled people of Certificates of Exemption from the requirement to stand whenever (a) the Pledge of Allegiance is recited and (b) the National Anthem is played (but only when said recital and said playing is initiated in strict accordance with the National Mutual Respect Act), provided that such people sit quietly with their hands (if such they have) over their hearts during the Spontaneous Ceremony of Mutual Respect.

All of this can be achieved within a matter of weeks, provided only that congress and the administration act in concert and according to their Mandate – for such is the irrevocably declared will of We The People.

now what?

I just have let this out of my head; I don’t have a complete picture of what the hell happened, and I have no reason to suppose that, like just about anything else, the answers to that question are not many and interrelated and complex.

But some components seem clearly identifiable, not least of which is precisely the one which I was so uneasy about when I wrote expressing my trepidations about it back in February of this year, before the odious little carnival barker was even nominated;

…Then consider that there is a gale-force wind blowing against any and all establishment candidates, not just in the thickets of wingnuttistan but howling across the entire political prairie.

Add in the indisputable fact that HRC is the very quintessence of an establishment candidate, and that the Democrat party establishment (here’s looking at you Wasserman Schultz) is, as usual, arrogantly assuming that all the bitterly disappointed Bernie progressives will be driven back into compliance by the LOTE argument—she’s the Lesser Of Two Evils—and the appalling prospects of at least one and possibly even two or three SCOTUS justices being replaced by the next president.

time for some serious thinking, innit?

time for some serious thinking, innit?

Stir all that together with the alarmingly high negatives which continue to bedevil HRC, and you have a formula for an electoral train wreck for the Dems the like of which they’ve not seen before ever, and of which they appear to be blissfully unaware.

So, to all those muppets in comment threads across the intertoobs who are busily and condescendingly characterizing the potential nomination of Trump as “the greatest gift to the Democrats”, stop and minute, lift up your heads and sniff the wind.

Of course all that came on the heels of another Democrat, a very skillful and inspiring speechifier whose campaign in ’08, and again in ’12, resembled the populist messaging of a Bernie Sanders as much as anyone else but who, upon being elected, began immediately fellating the likes of Larry Summers, and then,  like the “Big Dawg”— that triangulating piece of shit fetish doll of Dem Party folklore before him—began to systematically throw us under the bus.

So, they got us our train wreck didn’t they?  Boy did they ever.

So now what happens, and what’s to be done?

 

Donald Trump, I’m betting, is no less surprised to find himself President-Elect than we are, but there he is, and it’s not unreasonable to suppose that he’s no more likely to embrace adult and thoughtful characteristics now than he was after he was nominated and would need to pivot, the sages insisted,  from the primary battles to the general election.

Well guess what, he didn’t pivot, and it clearly didn’t hurt him one damn bit. So, Trump being Trump is a winning formula, at least so far as the narrative inside Trump’s head is concerned, and always has been, so the task of persuading him that he needs, now, to pivot yet again into becoming a careful and responsible and thoughtful adult is probably a lost cause.

Trump is not someone who surrounds himself with clever people who will challenge him. He doesn’t like opposition or criticism, that’s clear enough, and has certainly never lived a life which required him to adjust to such things, and the empirical evidence suggests his appetite for vengeance is almost insatiable.

There are names now being floated for who Trump is considering as cabinet appointments. OK sure, these are rumors, but there are people who expect to be rewarded, who must be rewarded, for tirelessly carrying water for him for the last year or so and Trump is certainly canny enough to understand that principle. What’s a guy to do with list of muppets which includes beauties like Rudy Guliani, Chris Christie, Newt Gingrich, Jeff Sessions, John Bolton, Bob Corker and many others including our old friend Ben “evolution is bunk” Carson?

As always we cannot know the future for sure. But it’s not outlandish to suggest that the very whitebread Trump/Alt-Right/AynRand/authoritarian/theocratic nexus to whom the American people have just basically written a blank check is not going have much opposition going forward, since the GOP is knee-deep in ideologues who share many of their views and they now control all branches of government except SCOTUS, and that’s on their to-do list without a doubt.

What can be done about any of this now, I don’t know.

We might have a couple of years to deploy the democratic process to change the balance of power in the Senate and/or House, but they’ll also have the same two years to move the goalposts so that democratic shenanigans like that can be stymied evermore.

Some footrace, huh?

Can the Dems (and it has to be them, right, ‘cos nobody else has the political infrastructure to mount an effective opposition in that kind of time window, do they?) get it together and, as Amy likes to say, drain their own swamp, see and acknowledge where they lost the plot and then re-tool for this fight?

Can we help that process along?

I don’t know, so I’m asking.

What is the primary task at hand now for people of goodwill who are unwilling to be governed by people who have already shown an appetite for belittling, even persecuting, their fellow humans by reason of gender or race or sexual orientation, and what should be the strategy?

a fuckup for the ages…

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We welcome our new Overlords.

Not official yet, as of 10:30 pm Mountain Time, but this is what it’s looking like. Right now HRC need PA, MI and WI and is down in all three.

If this holds, which now seems more likely than not, it’s the biggest fuckup—from any and every aspect and by several orders of magnitude—in any of our lifetimes, and the beginning of a transformation of this Republic into Something Else Entirely.  The racists and the theocrats and the Ayn Rand fetishists will have the bit between their teeth now, and with a GOP majority in both houses of Congress there’s gonna be nobody to haul effectively back on the reins at all.

I’m going to go do something else for a while, I’m too disgusted to talk about this any further tonight.  If I wake up tomorrow and discover I put up the wrong picture and my fears are misplaced, I won’t complain.

 

downballot

House guests for a few days around here, so I’ll keep this short.hillary-vigurie-report-350x452

I have it on good authority (the internet) that Hillary Clinton will be president soon, thus we’re all to be precipitated into a progressive hellscape where every single aspect of our lives will be micro managed by dreary party functionaries and death panels and militarized domestic police forces.

Oh well, that’s how it goes sometimes I guess.

 

Anyway, again I’ll say that absent any bizarre and unprecedented occurrences (in an election season, let’s remember, composed almost entirely of them) it looks as if Trump is going down to defeat, though probably not as big a defeat as even a moderately sane world would ordinarily be expected to deliver, given what a spectacular douche the guy is.

Still, the possible size of the defeat has once again engendered some gleeful hand-rubbing among the Dem party faithful.

Unless there’s an even more calamitous (calamitous, that is, if you’re one of those dreading the oncoming Progressive Police State) nosedive in GOP support in the next two weeks, it’s still likely that the House will remain under GOP control, but the Senate, well, maybe not so much.

Here’s the latest histogram from Sam Wang;

senate_histogram_today

The likelihood of Dem control has been slowly creeping upwards for the last 10 days or so, and now the three most likely outcomes are a Dem majority , give that a 50/50 split is effectively that if Kaine is VP.

I think today is the first time for many weeks that Wang has shown a clear (51) majority is the most likely outcome, however, and the trend would seem to be moving slowly toward the Dems generally.

Professor Hubbard has the probability of outright Dem control of the Senate steadily increasing during October from about 25% to 35%, with the overall probability of a functional majority being around 66%.

unsinkable

Sigh.

I’ve dreaded writing this post and have procrastinated for several weeks, partly because I was clinging to the forlorn hope it would not be necessary, that the SS Trump actually would founder and disappear beneath the waves. He won’t, though it does seem reasonably certain at this point that absent any truly bizarre circumstances (in a campaign season constructed almost entirely of them, let’s not forget that), Trump is not going to win this election.

He will not occupy the White House and the First Lady of the US will not be a stone-faced Eastern European hooker with just one client. (Hey, don’t get mad at me, Donnie boy, you’re the one who wants to ditch what you call “political correctness” but which thoughtful people call basic civility, remember? So fuck you.)

He will actually lose an election that he very likely could have won without really being any less of a whole laundry list of disagreeable things which he indisputably is—including a racist, a predatory misogynist, a climate change denier, a conspiracy theorist,  an operator of a horribly fraudulent “university”, a piece of shit who routinely short-changes working people as a normal part of his business strategy,  a demonstrable liar on a scale sufficient to dwarf all previous political norms, a petulant and vindictive little carnival barker, and just all-around narcissistic asshole—if only he’d had the ability to hide all those things better.

Like his running-mate Pence, for example, who does a very serviceable job of disguising the fact that in so many ways the only real difference between himself and the most odious mullah on Earth is the absence of a beard. If Trump had been able to muster just a smidgen of that kind of discipline and focus, Hillary Clinton would be going down in flames as we speak.

How can we know this?  Well, here’s a guy who has proposed so many crazy things, any one of which would have scuppered any other political candidacy in modern times, that probably none of us can now recall the entire list, and yet there he is, still flailing madly away and not really that much further behind than Mitt Romney was and who was himself scuppered by just one single ill-considered remark about “the 47%”.

Donald Trump. An absolute firehose of nastiness and lunacy for month after month.

Donald Trump. A relentless firehose of nastiness and lunacy for month after month.

Still, I’m tempted to give it a whirl, just for the hell of it;  He’s proposed committing a whole variety of war crimes, like advocating torture as “necessary” even if it “doesn’t work” and the deliberate targeting of  “terrorists’ families”. You have “to take them out”, he’s said. He suggested that there “needs to be punishment” for women who undergo abortions, even though the procedure has been ruled legal by the nation’s highest court.

Then there’s The Wall. The less said about it the better, probably, except to say that I do wonder how many of his supporters actually think it would ever actually be built. I could maybe live with the idea of a few tens of thousands, but if there really are tens of millions of people who really do seriously believe his wall (“it just got ten feet higher, folks, it just got ten feet higher, I promise you”) will actually get built at all, never mind that Mexico will “pay for it”, then we’re in a hell of a lot more trouble than I thought, and as those of you who have read my bullshit for any length of time know, that’s one hell of a lot.

Stop and Frisk. You “have to do it”. It’s “common sense”. And our military has been reduced to “rubble”. Oh yeah, and speaking of frisking; “I just start kissing them, you can do anything if you’re a star,  grab them by the pussy. They just let you do it”.  He’s floated the alibi that the women who accuse him of doing exactly that are lying because they’re too ugly for him to grope. “Just look at them, folks, just look at them. I don’t think so. She wouldn’t be my first choice, I can tell you.”

He pretended he didn’t know who David Duke is and declined to distance himself from him.  He expresses nostalgia for “the old days” when hecklers would be “carried out on a stretcher, folks. We’re not allowed to punch back anymore.” He calls one of his primary opponents (Cruz) “a pussy”.

He proposes a “complete and total shutdown of Muslims entering the United States”, because of course he did.  Claimed Muslims were dancing in the streets in Jersey City, NJ after 9-11 “where thousands and thousands of people were cheering as that building was coming down. Thousands of people were cheering.” He was lying. They weren’t.

Sure there’s more, lots more, but stopping here seems like the thing to do before we all lose the will to live.

Except to say this. None of those things, taken singly or even in bunches, proved enough to sink campaign Trump. While it’s true that the polls are now showing significant loss of support, with that trend continuing, nobody as yet knows what flipped the switch.

It turns out, early polling on that matter suggests, that not even bragging about committing felonious sexual assault and getting away with it by reason of wealth and fame was, in and of itself, enough to sink the campaign.  One wonders if we’ll get around to having a conversation about that sometime; not for what it says about Trump, because fuck Donald Trump, but for what it says about today’s electorate. About us.

If you’re Donald, of course, you won’t be losing the election. If you’re Donald that’s just psychologically impossible. Can’t happen.  If you don’t win it can only be because the game was rigged, and naturally you’ve been talking about that for months now, with increasing frequency of late as the true nature of your campaign’s situation becomes clearer.

Here comes Donny "wrecking ball" Trump, Mr. Ryan. What's your plan? Another GOP "makeover", more minority "outreach"??

Here comes Donny “wrecking ball” Trump, Mr. Ryan. What’s your plan? A bigger tent? Another GOP “makeover”, more “minority outreach”?? Double down on the Ayn Rand bullshit?

Those most faithful and hypnotized followers in whose hearts you have been relentlessly stirring up the darkest impulses are listening to you, as they always do, and taking notes. If the “rigged system” won’t allow you, our fearless leader who tells it like it is, to walk triumphantly through the front doors of the White House to evict that Kenyan Usurper in accord with the true will of the American People, then by god that system needs to be wrecked and we’ll just start over.

The chances we’ll avoid having some loony(s) pushed completely over the edge by Trump’s reckless flailing are not good.

The FBI just last week  broke up a plot and arrested 3 assholes in Kansas for planning to blow up a bunch of people after the election, but the culprits were white “militia” characters stockpiling explosives and weapons, not Muslims like their intended victims, so that’s not going to occupy anything like the same amount of column inches as it might otherwise do, and nobody in Trump’s orbit is going to even mention it.

So here we are. Trump won’t sink, though he almost certainly won’t win on Nov 8th. He’ll still be talking crazy shit, and the people who love him will subscribe to his new television network (a good bet, wouldn’t you say?) and will talk themselves even further out into the dangerous weeds while they await Trump v2.0.

But in spite of all this, in some corners of the world, there is yet hope.  On this occasion, it’s in Oz.  It turns out that the Upper House in the New South Wales parliament has passed a resolution by MP  Jeremy Buckingham, condemning Donald J Trump as “a revolting slug unfit for office”.

“It’s clear that all reasonable and decent people find Donald Trump’s behaviour obnoxious and that the world is hoping American voters reject his politics of hate,” Buckingham said.

Kudos all around, cobbers, and many thanks.

 

Since we’re kinda keeping track, the mighty Professor Hubbard’s EV chart this week is looking stronger for Clinton, and he has the odds of her winning at 99.93% if the election were held today.

evcount1016

Sam Wang has a Clinton win on election day at a probability of 98%, with an EV count of 332/206.  Both Wang and Hubbard are substantially more optimistic about the trends in downballot races than is Silver at 538, though giddy speculation about a substantial majority in the Senate and even the House being in play is nowhere near justified by the current numbers.

still afloat, barely…

Not much point in going over all the absurdities of the previous week, since anyone with an IQ bigger than their shoe size (and that would be US sizes, not European ones) knows what a dick Trump really is, but to get us rolling and just for grins and to clear the links crowding my desktop there are a couple worth mentioning;

  • At a rally in Nevada on Wednesday, Trump appealed to the terminally ill to hang on long enough to cast their votes.

    “I don’t care how sick you are,” he said “I don’t care if you just came back from the doctor and he gave you the worst possible prognosis, meaning it’s over. Doesn’t matter. Hang out till November 8. Get out and vote.”

  • In response to accusations of misogyny being behind his referring to women over the years as “pigs, slobs and dogs” among other things, he suggested it’s just all in good fun and is in no way suggestive of lack of respect for women;
    donald-trump

    I like me some pussy grabbing and naked girls who let me in the dressing room because, you know, I’m a star. Oh yeah, and I own the dressing rooms.

    “A lot of that was done for the purpose of entertainment, there’s nobody that has more respect for women than I do,”

OK, onward.

Just where the hell are we now, and what’s actually happening?

The GOP pooh-bahs are, naturally, expressing horror at Trump for grabbing women “by the pussy”—which according to both his own admission and emerging victim accounts is something he actually does from time to time with impunity, you know, being a star and all—as if up until this very moment they’ve had, cross their heart and hope to die;

a) no idea of what a sleazy and petulant little carnival barker this guy has always been, for fucking decades, and

b) their political party, driven largely but not exclusively by its enormously influential religious whacko contingent,  has not been engaged in open and escalating political warfare on women all across the board for at least a couple of generations.

Some GOP functionaries, especially those House and Senate members up for re-election this time around, are announcing that this is “the last straw”and saying they can no longer support Trump for the presidency, but without mentioning the wagons carrying bales of straws which have been groaning across the political landscape for more than a year now.

Party leaders like Ryan and McConnell and Rouge Pinball are “horrified”, but not enough to withdraw their support for him as candidate. Given that Trump has been a publicity-seeking scumbag for decades and thus there are certainly more unsavory revelations to come (here’s a fresh one just today about how Trump liked to walk around in the dressing rooms of “beauty contests” he owned, ogling the nekkid wimmin—and there will be more, much more), maybe they’ll get there eventually or maybe not. Without a doubt the only reason they’re hanging on is lack of a workable alternative.

Meanwhile, aside from being “sick to their stomach” and blah blah blah (as if, you know, there are no high-class hookers in DC and sexual predation of all kinds are not SOP among powerful men, and as if they, too, didn’t know until just now who Trump really is) the Democrat pooh-bahs are remaining relatively quiet, which strategically is probably the smart move for now.

There is bleating from various quarters that Trump should quit. Trump himself  immediately announced that he’s never quit anything in his life and won’t consider “letting his supporters down”, which with a normal candidate would mean he’s seen the writing on the wall and will certainly quit.

But Trump is not a normal candidate and that’s not what’s going to happen.

Trump has basically captured enough of the GOP base that he can adopt the “hey, nice political party, be a shame if something happened to it” posture. His supporters don’t care about the pussy grabbing, indeed most of them would jump at the chance if they thought they could get away with it. Thus Ryan ran into plenty of lusty booing at the rally in Wisconsin for “dis-inviting” Trump, as did Joe Heck who is running for the US Senate in Nevada and who, at one of his rallies today, decided to denounce Trump.

At this point, the “party unity”  thumb the GOP establishment has been sucking as if it still existed anywhere outside of Ridge Polebarn’s rhetoric, has evaporated for good no matter what.  If Trump quits, he takes his toy soldiers and the party flies apart. If he keeps running and loses, the toy soldiers blame the GOP establishment (and the media, of course), and the party flies apart.  Couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch of jerks, though what might arise out of the rubble is worrying and is very unlikely to be an improvement.

Let’s see, what else?

main-hillary-clinton-eyes-in-different-directions

Who, me, a supporter of austerity and TPP and cutting Social Security? Never! Why, just this past summer Bernie turned me into the progressive I’ve been my whole life, remember?

Oh yeah, there’s to be a “town hall-style” debate tonight, which should be a hoot. Trump has hinted strongly that he’ll come out swinging against the Clinton familia’s sexual indiscretions in response to the pussy grabbing issue, a topic which Anderson Cooper is still trying to figure out how to raise on Sunday night prime-time teevee.

Some snippets of Hillary’s paid speeches to the financial sector have emerged, where she describes the policies embodied in the Simpson-Bowles “plan” from 2010—which advocated cutting Social Security benefits among other austerity measures—as being “the right framework” for a path forward.

The yawning gap between that posture and the her current one, assumed after Bernie’s insurgent campaign scared the shit out of Dem establishment and cause Hillary to scamper into her current incarnation as a “lifelong progressive”, would normally be something of a big deal and an opportunity to pursue the “lying Hillary” and “political windsock Hillary” narrative, but topics like that don’t ordinarily stand much of a chance against lasciviousness and genitalia.

 

Onward to the mighty Professor Hubbard’s EV chart. We’re back in “ass kicking” territory again—and this is before either the pussy grabbing data or the fallout from tonight’s debate have had time to register—with Clinton’s winning probability back up in the high 90th percentile once more.

 

evcount1009

Still not much movement in the downballot situation, with the chances of the Dems re-taking control of the senate not much better than 50/50 anywhere, and a bit less than that in most places. That could change very quickly, of course.

As I’ve been writing this, between trips back and forth to the kitchen (Sunday is bread-baking and soup-making day around here) it’s clear that events are now moving so rapidly, and new “scandals” are erupting at such a furious pace, that any attempt to evaluate “where we are and what’s actually happening” is doomed to failure before it even begins.

About all I’m willing to guess is that, starting with the debate this evening, this coming week is going to be a complete fucking zoo. I don’t think there’s much Trump can do at this point to salvage a viable campaign out of the wreckage, and certainly the emerging trends in the data support that conclusion, but hey, shit happens.

What the hell the political landscape is going to look like by this time next Sunday, and who is left standing, I have no idea.