Skinned by Flynn?

How many gigatons of speculation can the interwebs churn out before we know if there’s really a there, there, or whether Flynn tries to whitewash?  Is Mrs Pence thinking about re-upholstering the White House sofas yet? Can anyone except me remember those photos of Nixon slouching in ignominy down that beach with his metal detector, still wearing his suit trousers, white shirt and leather shoes. What are the chances that Trump could feel even a momentary shiver of shame? Are deals being made as I type, trading one vote for a SCOTUS confirmation in return for one vote for a POTUS disconfirmation?

 

Or is it all just more gas and air? As illusory as ‘Clean Coal’?

23 Responses to Skinned by Flynn?

  1. Expat says:

    Oliver North was granted immunity in exchange for congressional testimony and it still failed to topple an administration.

  2. bluthner says:

    Reagan had a lot of support in the country and a lot of allies in Congress. Trump is already tanking in the country and in Congress only not openly antagonistic, for the moment, vultures. Also Oliver North was fighting the Commies. Trump appears to have made a deal with, and taken money and support from, Putin. Among others.

  3. KevinNevada says:

    North was willing to commit perjury and risk his military standing for the Sake of the Cause.

    Is Flynn that committed? Or is he just another nutty huckster, ready to deal?

    This is becoming beer-and-popcorn time.

    And to all the depressed skeptics on this board: IT’S ONLY TAKEN TWO MONTHS

  4. KevinNevada says:

    Bluthner:

    your comment crossed mine.

    Yes, the juice on the Hill held by any President with a 35 percent approval rating, is “not much”.

    His feeble threats this week against the Teepers, excuse me the “Freedom Caucus” were both pathetic and revealing. CB’s core supporters overlap with the Teepers a lot.

    Word is that many White House staff have lawyered up, in prudent preparation for the shit-storn a’comin.

    Nunes’ little gambit has also blown up in their faces. One of his two ‘sources’ worked FOR Nunes until a few weeks ago and the other one is a Bannon operative whom Gen. McMasters has already tried to fire. (He was over-ruled by the Big Head Cheese.)

    I tell ya, its time for beer and popcorn.

  5. The more cornered Trump feels himself to be (and Bannon et al) the more concerned I become.

    Trump is not going to go down without throwing the kitchen sink. I genuinely fear there is no skullduggery he will not deploy rather than be exposed as the petulant and vindictive carnival barker he really is and has always been.

    Let’s not all forget how to spell Reichstag, OK?
    Not sure if Trump himself can actually spell it, but Bannon sure as hell can.

  6. bluthner says:

    I think you’re right, nine. Instead of popcorn and beer it could well be more like duck and cover. And the last ditch before catastrophe is manned by the GOP Congressmen and Senators. Which is not a comforting thought in the best of times. Pretty fucking terrifying now.

  7. Yeah.
    There is nothing about Trump today, and nothing in his history, to suggest he’s remotely likely or even remotely willing, ever, to admit fault or (worse, if you’re him) be publicly revealed as “losing”.
    No matter the evidence.
    I simply cannot picture him announcing his resignation and shuffling off like Nixon did. His answer to anything he perceives as a threat is to attack, and if that doesn’t work, attack even harder. It’s who he is all the way down to the bone.

    There is not a shadow of doubt in my mind that he’d do absolutely anything in his power—which is now considerable— to avoid “losing face”, no matter the cost or the casualties.

    Who might be in a position to stop him and have the desire to do so, I really don’t know.

  8. Expat says:

    Alec Baldwin says he’s satire resistant.

    Trump’s supporters certainly seem to be hostile to smart arses.

  9. KevinNevada says:

    If the Gallup 35 percent number is accurate, and for shits and giggles let’s say it is, then they are now losing core Republican voters.

    And they have already, essentially, lost EVERYONE else.

    We’re only two months into this farce, and it’s falling apart already.

    Credibility is like virginity, it’s a bit hard to recover.

    And if you’re a compulsive liar, pathologically so, then it’s impossible. Remember how C.B. got into the Russian mess, from about 2007 onwards – the US banks finally learned and stopped lending him anything. He ran out of willing chumps in US finance. He found ready cash in Cyprus, laundered by assorted Russians.

    But his problem is that they made the loans personal. No corporate-bankruptcy dodge for Donnie, with those guys. They play rougher than US banksters.

    So of course, the tax returns cannot be revealed.

    And the Russian thing is exploding wide, on multiple fronts now, too wide to cover up.

  10. KevinNevada says:

    9T:

    I think the parallel with Nixon will be an overwhelming coincidence.

    Remember that in 1974 it was Barry Goldwater (with several others, but Barry was the one who counted) who went to the White House to tell Dickie it was time to go. Now.

    Another Arizona Senator may have that job, sometime later this spring. Perhaps summer.
    But soon.

  11. bluthner says:

    Nixon drew his self esteem from his public image of a man with wisdom and integrity. Never mind it was a false image, it existed, until it didn’t, in the minds of the people whose opinions he valued. Trump draws his self esteem from his public image of a man with vast wealth who always wins. Again, it’s a false image, on both counts, and again the truth is coming at him like a freight train that is going to smash the illusion to smithers. At which point Trump loses everything in the entire world he cares about. He might as well be dead. Which means he cannot go willingly, no mattter who shows up at the white house to call time. Giving up would mean his “brand value” (most of his net worth) plummets to zero, all his loans get called, and he ends up with, in his view, nothing. He’d sooner kill himself than submit to such a miserable fate voluntarily. Or even recognize its inevitablility. And he’d sooner kill all the rest of us than kill himself. Hell he’s such a narcissist that he probably thinks he’d be doing us all a kindness if he kills us all first, so we never have a chance to hear the terrible words: “Trump is poor. And a complete loser.”

    If Flynn really is preparing to flip on Trump, which I will only believe after I see and hear it, then he had better be keeping himself locked away in a secure location and guarded by the most rabid of Russophobes and Trump haters on the planet. Because Trump would far sooner risk having him killed than risk going down in flames. And if Flynn does intend to flip, and lives to do it, then the same applies to all the rest of us.

  12. NatashaFatale says:

    To pile on: Nixon’s palace guard (H-man, E-man, and all their juniors) mostly stayed in the palace and did not run the executive branch (with the exception of Mitchell and Henry the K). And Gerry Ford was liked even by his political enemies, who thought he was stupid, not crooked. There was no Kushner, there was no Bannon. About whom…

    …ah, Bannon. The man who believes in the health benefits of nuclear fallout. The man who has waited his whole life for the gig he’s got right now, the man who doesn’t give a flying fuck about Donald Trump (or just about anyone else) but will let him stay in office for as long as he’s useful… He’s the guy who ain’t going away till he’s shot his wad, he’s the guy no Goldwater (never mind any Pence or McCain) is going to tell to clean out his desk when they decide it’s his time to go. “The fools are playing right into our hands, Mr. President. Let them all stand up and be counted, and I guarantee you, they’ll never know what hit them…” ,

  13. bluthner says:

    Bannon also is the guy that Trump can’t fire. He knows where all the bodies are buried. He only goes out in cuffs or feet first.

  14. NatashaFatale says:

    Bluth,

    I’ve now read two articles by authors in the prosecution trade on Flynn’s offer (or hopeful gambit) to accept an immunity deal. Both are coherent, non-gee-whizzy, and plausible-sounding – but as a legal ignoramus, I’m requesting your opinion. Both make the same four points:

    1. Your own lawyer won’t let you accept immunity unless he’s convinced you’re already toast.
    2. The prosecution won’t offer you immunity unless they’re trading up: letting you skate in exchange for a bigger name who (a) isn’t already toast but (b) is someone they’re pretty sure you could help them make nice and crispy.
    3. There aren’t that many bigger (than Flynn) names in sight here: prosecutors wouldn’t trade him for Manatfort or Stone or Page. They would trade him for Kushner or Bannon – or of course for Trump himself.
    4. Nobody (except Trump) has yet has shown any eagerness to see an offer of immunity get made. Which leads my authors to think that at least for now, nobody thinks Flynn is able to deliver any plums sweeter than his own sorry ass.

    Sound right to you?

  15. bluthner says:

    Nat,

    1. I don’t find it hard to believe that Flynn could already be toast.

    2. Prosecutors will offer you immunity if they think their case against you may be hard to prove. Often they may have evidence that nails you down tight, but- they may be worried about how they obtained that evidence. In other words they may know you are stone guilty but the constitution may get in the way of their ability to prove it. In which case they may well offer you a deal even if you can’t give them a bigger fish.

    3. Sure. But there’s another name in there, which is Putin’s. They would very much like hard evidence on Putin, even though they can’t prosecute him.

    4. Trump could be trying to send a message to Flynn that if Flynn sings, but leaves out the important stuff, then he will do his best to reward him afterwards. A very dangerous game for Flynn, because if he takes a deal and gets caught lying only once after that, his deal evaporates and everything he said while he thought he had the deal can be used against him. Dangerous for Trump, because Flynn probably isn’t smart enough to parse the truth and get away with it, because almost no one is that smart, given the scrutiny Flynn will be under, and the amount of time Flynn will be under it.

    Or Trump could be bluffing. Mabye because that’s just what he does when his knee jerks, or maybe to make it look like he has nothing to fear from Flynn (because, if we were writing a bad thriller, he knows Flynn is going to be dead before he can sing).

    Generally I would discount anything that belongs in a bad thriller, but with Trump and Bannon (and Putin) in the mix, anything at all is possible.

  16. Bluth, I don’t understand the reasoning behind your #2…

    If the prosecution knows for sure you’re guilty, but the evidence they have isn’t up to snuff constitutionally, why would they offer immunity without a bigger fish as a trade?
    Why not just keep looking for evidence that will pass muster? Otherwise they’re off the hook for evermore, even if fresh and acceptable evidence does surface, right?

    What’s the upside in giving immunity in exchange for nothing?

  17. bluthner says:

    Nine,

    I take your point, and for a common or garden murderer or thief, you’d be right. But when the perp is in a high profile public job, and he admits he did a crime, he or she isn’t getting immunity for nothing, he or she’s just not going to jail.

    Getting a high profile public figure to admit to a crime is not just a scalp for prosecutor, fueling his own career; that admission of crime destroys (or should destroy – we are living in strange times now) his public career forever. If Flynn copped to treason (or any high crime involving Russians) for immunity that would taint forever Trump and Trump’s entire administration (plus the prosecutor could always in the future go back to the well). Flynn might eventually just start replying “I don’t recall”, but essentially Flynn would have pled to a suspended sentence, because if anything he has ever said in the past (under oath pursuant to the plea bargain) ever proves to be a lie he goes straight to jail. Or could do.

    If you had been after Bushbaby and you found a way to get Cheney to accept immunity and admit a crime, you’d have done it just to get Cheney out the government wouldn’t you? And that of course has to be part of the deal with perps like Flynn: you don’t go to prison but you do step away from power. Forever.

    An example from more mundane criminal law: sometimes when big traders are caught trading on inside information, they pay a fine and cop a plea and are no longer allowed to trade any more (except for themselves, often, and of course by then they have amassed so much capital that they don’t really need to trade other people’s money to remain players in the game). Doctor’s and lawyers are stripped of their licence to practice, even if they don’t do a day behind bars. The point, for the prosecutor, is the scalp, and to deter the others. The criminal remains free, and often rich, but he or she has lost something of great value (to him or her) nonetheless. So it’s not for nothing.

  18. KevinNevada says:

    To me, the interesting revelation is, further proof, that the Brilliant Superior Man with the Really Great Brain (just ask him!!), has once again demonstrated his incredible ignorance.

    He has to be the laziest rich guy around. He has not bothered to learn anything that a person normally learns in public life, such as the nuances explained here by our Bluthner.

    His reasoning behind the tweet to Flynn, telling him to go ahead and get immunity, seems to be the simpler and stupider explanation, as follows:

    “Flynn did nothing wrong, because there have been NO ERRORS in MY White House, so the idiots on those committees should just admit that in advance, and then the general will go over and explain it to them.”

    Occam’s Razor, people, it suffices for many purposes. Everyone is trying to parse clever messages from the Big Head Cheese, but it’s very possible that he just reasoned as I’ve outlined here, from ignorance of the process.

  19. bluthner says:

    Kev,

    Trump just has to have had too much legal advice to be as ignorant as you suppose he is. I mean when he has the doors shut and is talking to his lawyers. For the consumption of his base we all know he is often ignorant on purpose. (I agree, before you jump on me, that he is just as often ignorant merely because he is ignorant, but when it comes to copping a plea he just has to know what the rules are, it’s not possible that he doesn’t, he’s sailed too close to the wind for too long, and got away with it, not to know those rules).

    I read that tweet you quote as him getting in his version first, to his base; he is informing them if Flynn cops a plea, which everyone now thinks is highly probable, and the man is granted immunity, hey presto that means whoever granted Flynn immunity is admitting in advance that Trump’s white house has made NO ERRORS.

    Of course that’s not what a grant of immunity means at all, quite the contrary, but after Trump has tweeted, try telling the truth to the good citizens who support him still and hang on his every twatted inanity. They know the real truth now, because Trump told them, and you are a lying libtard.

  20. NatashaFatale says:

    I think Trump knows law the way he knows hotel construction and gaming and golf course designing: you pay a lot of money to the best people available, make sure they’re on board with what you want from them, and then you do exactly what they tell you. That tax loss scam he worked was supposed to be impossible: selling an asset you’ve written off at a profit while still keeping the tax loss you took on the write-down? He sure as hell didn’t figure out how to make it legal, but somebody did – and only for him. And what Trump don’t know about buying expertise, little Jared sure as hell does: he ain’t hanging around because his daddy-in-law is a sentimentalist.

  21. bluthner says:

    If Trump hadn’t explained, publically, at length, over and over, to his rallies, exactly what a grant of immunity means, I’d be willing to suppose he might be unaware of how grants of immunity work, but he did, we can watch him do it, again and again and again. He’s playing a game that ought to tell the people who he thinks will believe him: This is how fucking stupid Donald Trump thinks you are.

    But they are that fucking stupid, apparently. Because for the hard core of them the message ain’t gettin’ through.

  22. KevinNevada says:

    So the consensus here is, Cheeto Benito is a clever con man, he hires smart advice and his supporters are credulous morons who will swill down whatever he spews as Revealed Truth Not To Be Questioned.

    OK, I’ll go with that.

    The hilarious side of this, of course, is that by some reports Flynn may not get that immunity.
    The people who want to ask him questions, under oath, already know the facts and are ready to ensnare him in perjury. He waited too long to sell out.

    There is always the possibility, of course, that he knows about something else not yet being discussed. Kind of like that WH maintenance guy who said, one day “Well you could always check the tapes” and was then asked ““WHAT tapes??” . . . .

    So Flynn does need some very good bodyguards. Vlad has been clearing the table of potential squealers all across Europe the past few months.

  23. KevinNevada says:

    And once again I point out, amazing but true . . . we’ve reached this stage, barely two months into the farce.

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