6 Responses to Some Hope

  1. Squirrel says:

    He has tweeted . . .As per prev. post, beware, though: there are the Assembly elections to go yet.

    (PS on ours: I hear from a very reliable source that Mrs Osborne may not see eye-to-eye with her son on.politics.)

  2. bluthner says:

    Took him a good long time to tweet. Having to congratulate Obama’s choice must have pained him. At least we can hope so.

    Will any of the legistlative candidates now run on a platform of support for Macron? Or will the legislature shake out more like a reflection of the first round?

  3. NatashaFatale says:

    Le Monde tells me that Macron took 26,044 precincts to Le Pen’s 9,194. One might therefore expect the National Front to take only 1 in 4 of the legislative races. But this is France, and Macron versus Le Pen was a binary choice, him or her. The other 637 parties will all have their local strongholds – and I don’t see those Le Pen voters settling for anything less than the FN. So if Macron has to form a coalition government, Le Pen might be in a position to Mitch McConnell him forever…

  4. Squirrel says:

    Bit tricky, friend (after we’d wondered about the abstentions/spilt votes last night: too late for either of us to do the sums; she had a row with her husband about our first attempt, which was admittedly as much guesswork as maths) found some electoral statistics this morning, which put Le Pen’s support much then same as in the first round. (Actually nearly 3% greater: 24% of the electorate to Macron’s 43%.) It looks as though most Melenchon voters—like her brother, who she’s very annoyed with—stayed at home.

    I looked at Le Monde too. My god, 16 million abstained or spoilt their ballot. That’s an awful lot of people (total electorate about 47 million) who ended up not at all convinced by Macron or En Marche. Or Fillon, of course. One presumes none of that 16 million abstained from voting for Le Pen. Le Pen got 10 million; Macron 20 million.

    It’s going to be a question of how the Assembly elections turn out: a lot of people will vote as per usual—even for the PS—though that will almost certainly mean the ‘Left’ could be even more fragmented than usual. ‘Cohabitation’ could be pretty tricky for Macron—especially; the only guy who really managed it was the very clever and thoroughly devious Mitterrand who knew French politics and politicians backwards, upside down and inside out, which Macron hasn’t had time to learn—unless his people do well, and a brand new party is an unknown in France.

    A lot of people are not going to be all that happy with some of Macron’s plans when they sink in. A lot of ‘liberalisation’ which didn’t go down too well with Hollande, to say the least. He’s probably going to need the Right (minus Le Pen?) more than the Left. There’s no chance (I hope) of the FN getting 1 in 4 of the seats though. The latest polling projection (which I think should be taken with salt, preferably Mediterranean sea salt) is:

    En Marche 249-286; the ‘republican right’ 200-210; FN: 15-25; PS and ‘the left’ (slaughtered!) 34-51.

    Our Farrago, who is now politically irrelevant but still very irritating, of course is fuming. Macron ‘stole’ the election, somehow. With any luck that also reduces his ‘useful idiot’ value to Trump, which is a good thing. (Trump after all only likes winners*. Our Nigel’s now lost twice, bigly.)

    (French friend, having lived in the UK far longer than in France, is rather more exercised over our elections, of course, but relieved nonetheless that Le Pen didn’t get too close to becoming Mme Presidente. Her husband is busy canvassing; she daren’t, though itchy, because she’s French and can’t vote. . .She’s distracting herself—or trying to—with plays, operas and concerts . . .As is Squ.)

    * What’s the betting that Trump will tweet what a loser Macron is (like he did with Citizen Khan): in two weeks? Four? Early July after the Assembly elections?

  5. bluthner says:

    Here is a long and rather thoughtful article about some topics we have discussed here at length, but coming at them from a view of Polish relations with the EU and the UK. I’d say well worth a read.

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